Provincial Elections//

UBC professors discuss provincial elections at panel event

Faculty, students and members of the Vancouver community gathered on October 10 to hear from UBC professors on the shifting political landscape and how the 2024 provincial election may shape BC's future.

The panel, co-hosted by UBC’s department of political science and the UBC Office of Government Relations, featured UBC political science professors Drs. Kathryn Harrison, Carey Doberstein and Stewart Prest.

The panelists’ discussion focused on BC’s three political parties — the BC Conservative Party, the BC Green Party and the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) — and those parties’ differing approaches to key election issues, ranging from housing and health care to climate change and Vancouver’s toxic drug crisis.

The panel was moderated by Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

Kurl began the discussion by providing the audience with the context that, for the first time in decades, the BC Conservative Party is poised to potentially threaten the NDP’s seven consecutive years as BC’s governing party.

“This is an unprecedented time in BC politics,” said Kurl.

Prest said this election marks a departure from previous provincial contests because younger voters — once a reliable base for the NDP — are now increasingly siding with the Conservatives. He also said a large set of BC’s population has felt “left behind” with tensions surrounding housing, sustainability and the toxic drug crisis.

“There is a dissatisfaction with government that we see in much of the democratic world,” Prest said.

Housing, health care and the toxic drug crisis

Many British Columbians are struggling to buy homes or even find affordable rental units, while others have seen their real estate investments grow significantly in value. This division, Prest said, complicates the government’s ability to take decisive action, as different segments of the population have conflicting interests.

On the topic of affordability, Prest said certain things are simply outside the control of the provincial government, such as rates of inflation or banking structures.

“We are working at the margins,” said Prest, referring to the magnitude of change that provincial politicians can enact.

Harrison echoed the limited role that the provincial government can play in affecting major policy change by talking about the re-emergence of the debate around the carbon tax. In 2008, BC became the first Canadian jurisdiction to implement a carbon tax. Recently, NDP leader and Premier David Eby said his party will end the province’s long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to larger polluters, if the federal government dropped its requirement for the law.

The conversation then shifted to health care, another critical issue in the election.

“Hundreds of thousands of British Columbians don't have access to a primary care provider,” said Doberstein.

Doberstein also said there’s a dwindling number of practicing health care staff.

“We have data that suggests that new generations of family doctors work 15 hours per week less than the generation prior, because they want to establish a work-life balance,” he said. Doberstein also said this is causing a shortfall in health care accessibility.

A recent study by the Canadian Medical Association Journal found that physicians’ work hours have been declining since 1997, indicating a long-term shift in work preferences among Canadian physicians who are seeking more of a work-life balance. Furthermore, over 38 per cent of family physicians in BC are 55 or older, with two-thirds of them over 60.

Doberstein also said health care quality differs in urban versus rural areas. Coming from Merritt, a small city in BC’s interior, he said rural areas often experience problems with short staffing and the ER being closed.

The implications of these health care shortages are prompting another discussion on whether health care should be publicly or privately funded. Doberstein used the example of the NDP’s recent program which sends cancer patients to for-profit clinics in Bellingham, Washington — which has caused some backlash concerning the government’s decision to pay this substantial premium.

On the issue of climate change, Harrison highlighted stark differences between NDP and Conservatives platforms. Harrison said the Conservatives acknowledge human-caused climate change, but its proposed policies still do not reflect a sense of urgency.

She said the Conservatives are planning to scrap the NDP’s CleanBC plan and propose to build new gas plants. The party is also looking to repeal carbon taxes. She said these changes would increase emissions.

Harrison said the NDP platform is calling for a clean energy future and has a goal to double BC’s clean electric capacity by 2050. Despite this, she does not see the province being able to meet its 2030 emissions reduction goals under these proposed NDP policies.

“This election will have huge implications for what happens with BC’s climate and energy policies,” said Harrison.

The panel also discussed BC’s ongoing toxic drug crisis. More than 21,000 people have died from an overdose since the province declared the toxic drug crisis a public health emergency in 2016.

“What is interesting to me is 20 years ago, we had an all-party consensus,” said Doberstein.

“Now, the drugs are much different,” he said, bringing up the example of xylazine, which has effects that can’t be reversed with naloxone. He said the crisis is causing people to “lose patience” in harm reduction strategies.

The importance of younger voters

“We are definitely seeing an election that is about young people,” said Prest.

Prest also said youth engagement can involve a wide variety of activities besides voting, including volunteering with parties or engaging in other political activities. Young voters, said Prest, aren’t as engaged in voting as they used to be.

Prest said increasing voter turnout can happen through “socialization to voting,” since the single best way to predict if someone voted is to see if they voted in the last election. Building that habit is integral to increasing voting rates and encouraging a younger population to cast their vote, said Prest.

“They [youth] can make a tremendous difference.”

This article is part of The Ubyssey's 2024 provincial elections coverage.